5 NFL Betting Mistakes You Should Avoid
We’re in the middle of the season already, and things are heating up. If you want to join in on the fun, then there are many things you have to consider, like the top picks for the season and the Super Bowl futures betting. However, if you want to take things slower, then you should look into other things, like the mistakes you need to avoid in NFL betting.
These mistakes are so common that even veteran NFL bettors occasionally do them. They are pretty deadly and can even end your bankroll pretty early on. With that said, what are these mistakes, and how should I avoid them? Let’s start.
Betting Solely On Your Favorite Team
If you’re a huge NFL fan, then you probably have a favorite team that you’re constantly updated with. While it’s normal for an NFL fan to have a favorite team, when it comes to betting, it can be detrimental. This is because, sometimes, your own bias can be your downfall, but how exactly? A bias in betting means you will most likely fail to assess a matchup.
For example, let’s say that your favorite team is the Seattle Seahawks, and they will be playing soon against the New York Giants. In most cases, the Seahawks are the underdogs. Let’s say that in this matchup, the Seahawks are less likely to cover their spread.
However, since you’re a fan, you bet on them on spread betting anyway since they are your favorite team, and you want them to win. Of course, this is bad since you’re betting with your heart and not with your mind.
Betting Against the Spread Only on Big Matchups
To be a successful bettor, you must look at all lines in NFL betting. This includes smaller games with a pretty much smaller audience. Why? This is because bookies tend not to put too much effort into the spread, which makes it easier for you to win because of the high probability. However, on big games, bookies tend to focus more, making sharper lines for the bettors. A sharper line means that it will be even more difficult for you to find an edge.
Ignoring Weather Updates and Injuries
Another betting mistake many people seem to make is ignoring any latest news that impacts the game significantly. For example, weather conditions. Why does that matter? Weather conditions significantly affect a team’s capability to move the ball. You also have to take note that the weather conditions also affect the line since bookies factor them in before publishing the lines.
A good example of this is a week 8 game during the 2020 season between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders. During that game, it was predicted that there would be rain and high winds, which pushed the total line from 55.5 to 48 points.
The difference is the equivalent of a whole touchdown. You could also say the same with injuries, especially when a key player is out of the game. An absent star player will considerably affect the totals, moneyline, and spread.
Poor Bankroll Management
Perhaps the most significant mistake an NFL bettor makes is poor bankroll management. If you do a poor job in bankroll management, no matter how many bets you win, your bankroll will not grow. So, how exactly do you manage your bankroll?
One thing you should always remember is to be consistent. A recommended strategy in bankroll management is to create a unit size. Usually, it’s recommended by experts that your unit size should be 5% of your whole bankroll. For example, if you have $100, your unit size should be $5, and that should be consistent on all of your bets.
Of course, we’re not saying you should only bet $5 on every game. You can go up to 3 units for every bet but nothing more. If you want a more conservative approach, you can divide your $5 into smaller bets on a single game. For example, you can go for $2 for moneyline, $2 for spread betting, and a dollar for totals.
Like how you can shop for clothes, you can also do that with bookies. Not every bookie has the same lines posted, for example FanDuel NFL Lines may differ from other platforms. This means there will always be better ones, especially on the internet. If you set yourself up by betting on multiple bookies with the same bet, your winnings will stack up with the difference. Of course, the difference between this line can be a point or two, but the payout can also differ with a dollar or two. Do this often, and your bankroll will grow steadily.
Remembering these mistakes can make you a much smarter bettor. And by being smarter in NFL betting, you’ll have more educated bets and, of course, higher chances of winning. Now that we’re in the middle of the NFL season, this is the perfect time to remember these tips.